The Methods and Accuracy of Polling |
Pollsters Under Attack
2004 Election Incivility and Its Consequences
ROBERT P. DAVES is director of strategic and news research at the Star Tribune, Minneapolis and St. Paul, where he also directs the newspaper’s Minnesota Poll. FRANK NEWPORT is editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll.
Address correspondence to Robert P. Daves; e-mail: Daves{at}startribune.com.
The 2004 election was remarkable for a number of reasons, including the harsh, personal attacks from all parts of the political spectrum on a number of media pollsters. The idea of "killing the messenger" has been around long enough for the phenomenon to have its own name, but it appears to have intensified much more than in the past. The article details the experiences of two polls and their pollsters, one national and one statewide. These attacks are part of a growing practice of trying to mitigate perceived damage by any message in the political marketplace. The article suggests that while there are positive effects from these developments, including heightened awareness among voters of polling methods, negative effects can damage the credibility of specific polls and their sponsors, as well as the profession in general, including market and other public opinion research. The article ends with a call for researchers to be more open with their methods and measures, and to strongly defend properly done research against critics; for journalists to be more discerning in evaluating poll criticisms before publishing them; and for professional organizations to help the public better understand polling, market research, and other public opinion research and their benefits to society.
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