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The Impact of Cell Phone Noncoverage Bias on Polling in the 2004 Presidential Election
Pew Research Center
Address correspondence to the author; e-mail: skeeter{at}pewresearch.org.
Despite concerns that the accuracy of preelection telephone polls would be harmed by the omission of voters who could be reached only by cell phone, most national polls performed well in predicting President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004, and state polls were generally accurate as well. The national exit poll conducted by the National Election Pool found that 7 percent of Election Day voters had cell phone service but no land line; younger voters were far more likely to be cell-only: 19 percent among those age 18–24 and 20 percent among those age 25–29. Within these two youngest age cohorts, cell-only voters were significantly more likely to be single and childless. While cell-only voters were more supportive of John Kerry than voters overall, they were similar to other voters within their own age cohort. Because of this, preelection telephone surveys that weighted their data appropriately by age were not significantly biased by the absence of the cell-only voters.
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