Public Opinion Quarterly Advance Access published online on April 2, 2009
Public Opinion Quarterly, doi:10.1093/poq/nfp017
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Political Engagement, Mobilization, and Direct Democracy
Address correspondence to Caroline J. Tolbert; e-mail: caroline-tolbert{at}uiowa.edu.
Research has found that states using initiatives and referendums have higher turnout, particularly in midterm elections. Existing research has not examined who is mobilized to vote when issues appear on statewide ballots. Building on work by Campbell (1966. "Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change." In Elections and the Political Order, eds. A. Campbell, P. E. Converse, W. E. Miller, and D. E. Stokes. New York: Wiley), we test whether ballot measures engage and mobilize people who do not fit the profile of regular voters. Using national opinion data from the 2004 and 2006 elections, we find that independents (relative to partisans) exhibited greater awareness of and interest in ballot measures in the midterm election. This pattern is not found in the presidential election, where peripheral voters are likely to be mobilized by the stimulus of the presidential race rather than by ballot measures. Absent salient ballot measures, some episodic independent voters may not be engaged by midterm elections. This suggests that some variation in midterm turnout maybe a function of peripheral voters becoming engaged by ballot measures.
TODD DONOVAN is with the Department of Political Science, MS 9082, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225, USA. CAROLINE J. TOLBERT is with the Department of Political Science, 341 Schaeffer Hall, University of Iowa, IA 52242, USA. DANIEL A. SMITH is with the Department of Political Science, PO Box 117325, Anderson Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA. We wish to thank Scott Keeter (Pew Research Center for the People and the Press) for placing our questions on 2004 and 2006 Pew surveys.