Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 68 No. 1 Pp. 81–93, © American Association for Public Opinion Research 2004; all rights reserved
Estimating Vote Choice
A New Look at the Generic Congressional Ballot
University of California, Berkeley
Public Policy Institute of California
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Voters typically pay little attention to the campaign for the House of Representatives in their district. This has complicated efforts to tap public opinion about these races because seemingly modest changes in the order or wording of questions can produce dramatically different responses (Box-Steffensmeier, Jacobson, and Grant 2000; Gow and Eubank 1984; Mann 1978; Mann and Wolfinger 1980; Wright 1993).1 Incumbency causes particular problems. It has been shown that placing too much emphasis on candidate names can bias estimates of vote choice in favor of incumbents because these incumbents are so much better known than their challengers. Voters recognize the incumbent’s name and seize on it, ignoring the partisan considerations that play a larger role in the voting booth (Box-Steffensmeier, Jacobson, and Grant 2000).
This evidence is compelling, but it applies to only a fraction of congressional election surveys. Most surveys can
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Bias in the National Election Study |
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Data |
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Analysis |
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Conclusion |
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Appendix: The PPIC Survey
QUESTIONS