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Public Opinion Quarterly Advance Access originally published online on November 13, 2007
Public Opinion Quarterly 2007 71(4):588-602; doi:10.1093/poq/nfm046
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© The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

The True Electorate

A Cross-Validation of Voter Registration Files and Election Survey Demographics

Michael P. Mcdonald

Address correspondence to MICHAEL P. MCDONALD; e-mail: mmcdon{at}gmu.edu

I cross-validate the 2004 general election electorate's demographic profile available from voter registration files, the media consortium's National Election Poll or exit poll, and the Current Population Survey within selected states. I find voter files and Current Population Survey to be in general agreement, but the exit poll reports an electorate that is younger and composed of more minorities. All three confirm a pronounced pro-woman turnout gap.

MICHAEL P. MCDONALD is with George Mason University Dept of Public and International Affairs, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive – 3F4 Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA. I would like to thank Moshe Haspel for providing registration data for Kentucky and North Carolina. Joe Lenski, Scott Keeter, John Krosnick, Sam Popkin, Warren Mitofsky, and two anonymous reviewers graciously provided comments. All errors remain my own.


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