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Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:11 PST

Editorial Board

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:11 PST

Understanding the 2008 Presidential Election: Introduction

Hillygus, D. S. — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:11 PST

Cell-Phone-Only Voters in the 2008 Exit Poll and Implications for Future Noncoverage Bias

Mokrzycki, M., Keeter, S., Kennedy, C. — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:11 PST

Amid growing concern about potential noncoverage bias in random digit dial survey samples that exclude cell phones, a national face-to-face exit poll provided an opportunity to reach November 2008 Election Day voters regardless of telephone status and to evaluate how the cell-only subgroup has changed since the 2004 election. The National Election Pool's survey found a sharp increase in cell-only incidence, comparable to trends for the general public in government surveys, with cell-only status approaching the norm for voters under age 30. But voters age 30 and older actually abandoned landlines at a faster rate, and the difference in presidential vote preference between the cell-only and landline-accessible voters in this age group was even greater than for younger voters. This suggests that typical poststratification weighting adjustments for age may be less likely to mitigate noncoverage bias in future landline-only RDD surveys.

The Dynamics of Poll Performance During the 2008 Presidential Nomination Contest

Traugott, M. W., Wlezien, C. — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:12 PST

This analysis focuses on estimation difficulties pollsters had in the primaries in 2008 in light of recent trends in improved polling accuracy in general elections. We consider the series of polls that were conducted in New Hampshire and other states holding primaries, looking at how the dynamics of the primary contest affected polling accuracy in those contests. The data come from published state-level results of public pollsters from the week preceding each primary or caucus for which polls were conducted; all told, we used 258 polls in thirty-six different Democratic events and 219 polls in twenty-six Republican events. The results show that the winner's vote share almost always exceeded the poll share while the race remained competitive, particularly early on in the nomination process. In an unusual perspective made possible by the length of the contest on the Democratic side in particular, this could be observed through most of the primaries; it was not the case in the Republican events after John McCain became the presumptive nominee. The analysis shows there are contextual factors at work that can affect the quality of the estimates that public pollsters make. Measures of momentum and viability affect the estimates differently early in the process compared to later, and there are special factors associated with the insurgent candidacy of Barack Obama that may also have affected the accuracy of the polls. We model these factors, investigate their explanatory power, and discuss the implications for pollsters in future primary sequences.

Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases

Rothschild, D. — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:12 PST

Using the 2008 elections, I explore the accuracy and informational content of forecasts derived from two different types of data: polls and prediction markets. Both types of data suffer from inherent biases, and this is the first analysis to compare the accuracy of these forecasts adjusting for these biases. Moreover, the analysis expands on previous research by evaluating state-level forecasts in Presidential and Senatorial races, rather than just the national popular vote. Utilizing several different estimation strategies, I demonstrate that early in the cycle and in not-certain races debiased prediction market-based forecasts provide more accurate probabilities of victory and more information than debiased poll-based forecasts. These results are significant because accurately documenting the underlying probabilities, at any given day before the election, is critical for enabling academics to determine the impact of shocks to the campaign, for the public to invest wisely and for practitioners to spend efficiently.

Change or More of The Same?: Evaluating Racial Attitudes in the Obama Era

Hutchings, V. L. — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:12 PST

A number of political commentators and social scientists have speculated about the implications of the election of Barack Obama for race relations. Some of the more optimistic have suggested that the 2008 election demonstrated that Whites’ racial attitudes have undergone a fundamental transformation. In this article, I seek to determine whether the putative transformation of Whites’ racial attitudes has extended to levels of support for policies designed to alleviate racial inequality, the role of racial prejudice in shaping these policy preferences and whether or not prejudice influenced the presidential vote choice in 2008. Much of the analyses in this article rely upon comparisons between the 1988 election, the last time an African American candidate achieved some success in the Democratic presidential primaries, and the 2008 election utilizing survey data from the American National Election Studies (ANES). In general, I find scant evidence of a decline in the racial divide. Blacks and Whites remain as far apart on racial policy matters in 2008 as in 1988. Second, younger cohorts of Whites are no more racially liberal in 2008 than they were in 1988. Third, the racial divide is only partially mitigated among Obama supporters. Fourth, in analysis of Whites’ racial policy preferences in 2008, I find that anti-Black stereotypes and indifference to Black suffering are among the strongest correlates of these opinions. Finally, I find that these same factors also contribute substantially to opposition to Obama in the 2008 election.

Determinants of Turnout and Candidate Choice in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election: Illuminating the Impact of Racial Prejudice and Other Considerations

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:12 PST

The presence of an African-American candidate on the ballot running for President in 2008 raises the possibility that the election outcome might have been influenced by anti-African-American racism among voters. This paper uses data from the Associated Press-Yahoo! News-Stanford University survey to explore this possibility, using measures of both explicit racism (symbolic racism) and implicit racism (the Affect Misattribution Procedure). The parameters of multinomial logistic regression equations were estimated to test the hypotheses that racism might have behaved differently on election day than they would have had racism been eliminated. The findings suggest that racism's impact on the election outcome could have been substantial, by causing (1) people who would otherwise have voted for Obama to vote for McCain, for a nonmajor party candidate, or not to vote at all, (2) people who would not have voted to vote for McCain instead, and (3) people who would have voted for a nonmajor party candidate to vote for McCain instead.

Winning the Race: Black Voter Turnout in the 2008 Presidential Election

Philpot, T. S., Shaw, D. R., McGowen, E. B. — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:12 PST

Estimates of voter turnout indicate that African Americans cast ballots at unprecedented rates in the 2008 presidential election. Given the presence of the first Black major party presidential nominee, this should be no surprise. But were heightened interest, efficacy, and a sense of racial identity due to the candidacy of Barack Obama the main factors contributing to the surge in Black voter turnout? Using data from the 1984 and 1996 National Black Election Studies and the 2008 American National Election Study, which contains a stratified random over-sample of blacks, we argue that party mobilization was a critical force in boosting Black turnout. Attitudinal factors, in contrast, appear to have been less robust in this election than one would assume.

Did Obama's Ground Game Matter?: The Influence of Local Field Offices During the 2008 Presidential Election

Masket, S. E. — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:12 PST

Imbued with unprecedented financial resources, the Obama 2008 presidential campaign established more than 700 field offices across the country, mostly in battleground states. To what extend did this form of campaigning actually affect the presidential vote? This article examines the county-level presidential vote in 2008 in eleven battleground states. The findings show that those counties in which the Obama campaign had established field offices during the general election saw a disproportionate increase in the Democratic vote share. Furthermore, this field office-induced vote increase was large enough to flip three battleground states from Republican to Democratic.